If gasoline price forecasts for 2015 are accurate, U.S. consumers should save an aggregate $125 billion in fuel costs, analysis published Thursday finds.
Motor club AAA reports a national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gasoline at $2.04, only a very modest decline from Wednesday, but $1.24 less per gallon than this date in 2014.
An increased rate of U.S. oil production, coupled with a weakened global economy, is pushing crude oil prices to record lows. That means less pain at the pump for U.S. consumers.
The Oil Price Information Service said it expects the national average retail price per gallon of regular unleaded gasoline for 2015 will fall somewhere between $2.35 and $2.45 per gallon.
If forecasts are accurate, OPIS said the low cost of gasoline will translate to an "income dividend" for consumers that could top $125 billion.
Refiners are readying for seasonal maintenance issues as they shift to a summer blend of gasoline, which is more expensive to produce. That's likely to mark the end of the steady slump in gasoline prices. Prices could spike as high as $2.75 and as low as sub-$2 in the short term.
Goundhog Day, Feb. 2, is usually the point at which gasoline prices begin a seasonal swing upward.
OPIS discounted expectations that low prices at the pump would translate to higher consumer demand for gasoline.
"Brisk gasoline demand growth will be over-hyped in early 2015, with many so-called analysts projecting unrealistic consumption increases," it said. "Changing demographics and the progression of tough CAFE standards will keep domestic demand growth in check."
Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards drive fuel economy for cars and light trucks produced for sale in the United States. Improved fuel economy in new model vehicles is helping keep demand low.
